Polar Vortex February 2024 Predictions Polar Vortex. Recent atmospheric patterns don't match those that typically precede a sudden stratospheric warming event. As the seasons change, the vortex descends toward the equator, and we experience those blasts of cold air, as we did this past month.
According to noaa’s new polar vortex blog, after a brief respite, the stratospheric polar vortex is expected to weaken again with potentially another major sudden stratospheric warming forecast to occur in the next week. For the gefsv12 forecast issued on february 12, ~90% of the individual model runs predict a reversal of the vortex winds (top, thin magenta lines), accompanied by a sharp increase in stratospheric temperature (thick.